The Milwaukee Brewers 2012 season was
a real head-scratcher. A rocky start...well not so much a rocky start
as a bad five months...found the Brewers struggling for air as the
season neared September. The bullpen was a disaster, and the starting
pitching never completely clicked either. Injuries devastated every
area of the team. Major contributors to the starting pitching, the
bullpen, defense, and the batting lineup all fell victim to the
injury bug early on. Things were bad. They were really bad, so bad
that the Brewers traded away pitching ace Zack Greinke and moved
pieces around to begin grooming for the future. But something clicked
in September. The Brewers dominated down the stretch and found
themselves coming from 12.5 games out of the wild card, to just 1.5
by late September. Unfortunately, the surge was all for naught as the
Cardinals took advantage of an easier close to the season and ran
away with the final wild card spot.
The way the season ended left the
Brewers with a lot of questions. Are we as bad as we played for the
majority of the season? Are these young pitchers as good as they
played in September? Who plays first base, shortstop next year? Let's
look at how the Brewers got to this position, and where they need to
go to get back into playoff contention in the future.
The Past
The Crew were the talk of baseball at
the end of the 2011 season, winning the division, reaching the NLCS,
the whole Ryan Braun MVP and steroid thing, and losing Prince Fielder
(and what would prove to be crucial bullpen pitchers) to free agency.
The Brewers used the off season to fill their holes. Aramis Ramirez
was picked up as a power hitter to fill in at 3rd, sure
handed SS Alex Gonzalez improved the defense, and Mat Gamel came in
to replace Fielder at 1st. They also added to their
outfield depth with Japanese star Norichika Aoki.
I, for one, thought they had built
themselves an even better ball club than the year before. The defense
was improved, and Fielder's production could easily be replaced with
the Gamel/Ramirez combination. The majority of the season, however,
proved otherwise.
The Defense
The Brewers committed the 9th
most errors in all of baseball during the 2011 season, but improved
to 18th this year. Every member of the 2011 infield
(Fielder, Weeks, Betancourt, McGehee)was in the top five of most
errors by their position. A nearly complete remodeling of the infield
improved the defense. The additions of Ramirez, Gonzalez, and Gamel
were obvious improvements defensively. Even when Gonzalez and Gamel
went down with injury, their back ups played well defensively as well
(cast includes: Hart, Ishikawa, Izturis, Ransom, and others).
The Pitching
Marquee
trades prior to the 2011 season made the Brewers pitching staff
dominant. The Crew expected similar output from the same cast in
2012, but to no avail. Narveson was injured early, forcing long
reliever Marco Estrada to assume a starting role. Marcum missed
significant time during the middle of the season due to injury, as
did Estrada. The Brewers blew up the pitching staff after seemingly
falling completely out of contention. During one stretch, Gallardo
was the only starting pitcher still in the rotation.
Here's
where it gets interesting: the rookies that filled in the rotation
were good, really good. Mike Fiers, Mark Rogers, Tyler Thornburg, and
Wily Peralta all showed that they are ready to make the jump to the
big leagues. Despite early struggles and throwing a bunch of rookies,
the Brewers ended the season with some relatively positive numbers.
They led the entire league with 1402 strikeouts, a club record.
The
bullpen was less interesting. Other than strikeouts, the Brewers
finished near the bottom in every other major statistical area for
pitching, largely (though not entirely) in part to the bullpen
struggles. Following the 2011 season where John Axford was
untouchable in the 9th
and the Hawkins, Saito, K-rod show turned baseball into a five inning
game, 2012 was a ginormous step backwards. The revolving door of
closers and the inability to find anybody who could consistently get
outs left every fan to cringe when a starter was pulled in a close
game.
The
Hitting
I'll
be the first to say “I told you so” to anyone who doubted the
batting lineup entering the 2012 season. The Brewers expected a drop
off with the departure of Fielder, but put up even better numbers
this season. They were better in every offensive stat other than
walks and strikeouts. I expect them to continue to put up good
numbers for years to come, as well.
Ryan
Braun had another MVP type season, hopefully putting to rest some of
the “steroid” talk (though the allegations were that he used
'roids to heal from an injury, not bulk up...but I won't be the first
to correct you!). Aramis Ramirez was also a bright spot. After an
expected slow start, he came around and was a force in the lineup.
Lucroy continued to improve and showed he will be a serious threat.
Even though he spent time on the disabled list, Lucroy average .320
on the year and was clutch.
The
Future
Upper
management will have some big decisions to make this offseason. As of
now, Gallardo is the only sure-fire starter. It's assumed that Fiers
will join him, and hopefully Narveson will recover from surgery well
and re-join the rotation. Peralta, Rogers, and Thornburg will get
long looks from the coaching staff.
It
sounds like Hart will remain at first, and Aoki in RF. I like this
decision, though I would like Aoki to hit closer to .300+. Logan
Schaefer may get looks as well with Hart leaving the outfield. With
Hart at first, Gamel will probably fight for time as a backup at 1st
and 3rd.
Shortstop
is the other intriguing position. Young, up and coming star Jean
Segura was acquired in the Zack Greinke trade. He showed he has a
sufficient arm and an encouraging developing bat, but he has a second
baseman's body and is prone to errors. The Brewers can pick up Alex
Gonzalez's contract for another year if they chose, but a less
expensive and less risky option may be available via free agency.
Finally,
the Brewers need
to
address the bullpen. I am a firm believer that sending Estrada back
to the bullpen will make a big difference. Melvin seems committed to
Axford, so the Brewers need to address a 7th
and 8th
inning guy. The Brewers could resign K-rod for significantly cheaper
than his current $8 million contract if they think he can bounce back
from his less than stellar year. Regardless, the bullpen needs two
more solid options for the Brewers to be a viable division contender.
Here
are my immediate thoughts on the roster next year:
Starters:
RP
Yovanni Gallardo
RP
Mike Fiers
RP
Wily Peralta
RP
Mark Rogers
LP
Chris Narveson
C
Jonathan Lucroy
1B
Corey Hart
2B
Rickie Weeks
3B
Aramis Ramirez
SS
Jean Segura
LF
Ryan Braun
CF
Carlos Gomez
RF
Norichika Aoki
Bullpen:
RP
Marco Estrada
RP
Tyler Thornburg
RP
Jim Henderson
LP
Manny Parra
RP
Francisco Rodriguez
RP
John Axford
LP
a guy like Randy Choate?
RP
a guy like Octavio Dotel?
LP
Juan Perez (not sold on him, but we need more lefties) or RP John
Stinson (is he ready to make the jump to the bigs?)
Bench:
OF
Logan Schaefer
1B
Mat Gamel
SS
Alex Gonzalez (re-structure contract?)
C
Martin Maldonado
UT
Nick Punto or Ryan Theriot
Obviously,
even in my semi-non-cash-restricted scenario where I can get whatever
players I want, there are still question marks. Even though Melvin
said he wasn't playing on making a big free agent splash this year,
it should be a very interesting off-season. The Brewers will be back
in business if they can address a couple of problem issues (mainly
the bullpen and starting pitching). Even so, in a division with the
Reds and Cardinals (yes, the Pirates I suppose...) they won't win the
division in 2013. Thankfully, the once deemed “emptied” farm
system actually shows really good promise and has been producing well
in their opportunities in the bigs.
One
thing's for sure, I'll still be watching and “rolling out the
barrel” in 2013 and for years to come. Go Crew!
-Zack
Follow
us on Twitter @WisSportsPulse
Stats
and information from:
brewers.mlb.com
via Adam McCalvy
baseball-reference.com
bleacherreport.com
baseballprospectus.com
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