Brewers: Year in Preview

Pitchers and catchers report to training camp in just 33 days. You can almost smell the Koops Mustard and Usinger's sausage now; or maybe that's just Wisconsin. I digress.

With the anticipation of baseball just around the corner, it may be fitting to take a look at where the Brewers stand. After a handful of free agent additions this winter, the Brewers roster seems all but completed. However, there is still much to be determined in the starting rotation, where there is room for several top prospects to make the cut.

Nyjer Morgan / T-Plush / Tony Gumbo elected free
agency in November

Back in November, a number of Brewers elected free agency. Nyjer Morgan, Jose Veras, Kameron Loe, Alex Gonzalez, Shaun Marcum, Francisco Rodriquez, Travis Ishikawa, and Manny Parra will no longer be part of the organization in 2013. Of course, four of those players were part of the worst bullpen in baseball in 2012. The Crew posted a bullpen ERA of 4.66, good for worst in all of baseball. Melvin made a concerned effort to fix the bullpen this winter, a la the departure of Veras, Loe, K-rod, and Parra.

New Bullpen

With that crop of relief pitchers saying goodbye, the Brewers were left without a singe LHP in the bullpen. A trade for former Devil Ray Burke Badenhop (RHP) and FA signings of Tom Gorzelanny (LHP) and Michael Gonzalez (LHP) helped to rebuild the bullpen and provide some depth with both RHP's and LHP's.

There are still some things to be determined in the bullpen, but as I see it, it looks to have shaped up this way:

Long Reliever: Tom Gorzelanny. He was a former starter for the Pirates and Nationals who finally found some success in the bullpen last year. He has good stuff against both righties (.247) and lefties (.237); just the kind of guy Roenicke likes to use here.

Lefty Specialist: Mike Gonzalez. Good against lefties (.179), not so good against righties (.297).

Set up man: Jim Henderson. He was a breakout guy last year during Ax's struggles. With the hopes that Axford will be more of his 2011 self, Henderson will see the 8^th inning.

Closer: John Axford. Melvin made it clear at the end of last season that even though Ax had struggled, he was still the Brewers' closer. Hopefully DM made the right call.

Other guys: Burke Badenhop and Brandon Kintzler are shoe-ins to make the roster. I am a strong supporter of both Josh Stinson and Tyler Thornburg. One (maybe both, I doubt it though) will make the roster.

(Read a similar article from www.wisportsblog.blogspot.com)

A host of other minor league prospects (and others) will also be competing for spots on the opening day roster, including: (Italicized players have a good chance to be on the opening day roster, parenthesized number is their rank in Brewers organization, via www.mlb.com)

RHP Nick Bucci

RHP Hiram Burgos

RHP Fautino De Los Santos

LHP Miguel De Los Santos

RHP Johnny Hellweg (5)

RHP Santo Manzanillo

RHP Michael Olmsted

RHP Ariel Pena (12)

RHP Jesus Sanchez

SS Jeff Bianchi

UT? Mat Gamel

2B Scooter Gennett (6)

UT Taylor Green

CF Khris Davis (18)

RF Caleb Gindl (15)

CF Josh Prince

CF Logan Schafer (8)

Non-Roster Invitees

A whole host of promising young talents will join the Brewers at training camp. The list:

RHP Jairo Asencio

LHP Jed Bradley (4)

RHP Darren Byrd

RHP Donovan Hand

RHP Taylor Jungmann (3)

RHP Arcenio Leon

LHP Travis Webb

C Dayton Buller

C Anderson De La Rosa

C Blake Lalli

C Rafael Neda

C Adam Weisenburger

SS Hector Gomez

1B Hunter Morris (7)

UT Donnie Murphy

CF Kentrail Davis (11)

Opening Day Roster

I see the opening day roster shaping out something like this:

Tyler Thornburg made his first
Major League start in 2012

Bullpen

John Axford

Jim Henderson

Tom Gorzelanny

Michael Gonzalez

Brandon Kintzler

Burke Badenhop

Josh Stinson

*The Brewers are insistent Thornburg will be a starter in the future. Because of this, I see them choosing to use him as a starter in Nashville over the opportunity to pitch out of the bullpen in Milwaukee

Rotation

Yovanni Gallardo

Mike Fiers

Marco Estrada

Chris Narveson

Mark Rogers

Estrada was forced into the starting rotation
in 2012 after an injury to Chris Narveson.
He was 5-7 with a 3.64 ERA last year.

*Over and over again this summer, DM has stated how much guts the A's had starting so many young pitchers. I think deep down, that's what he wants to be. After Spring Training, the rotation will probably look like this, but I would prefer to see Peralta here and Estrada in the bullpen (bumping Stinson out). Estrada is a good starter, but great from the pen. Put him where he succeeds.

Lineup

RF Norichka Aoki

1B Corey Hart

LF Ryan Braun

3B Aramis Ramirez

Alex Gonzalez!

C Jonathan Lucroy

2B Rickie Weeks

CF Carlos Gomez

SS Jean Segura

Pitcher

Bench

UT Mat Gamel

UT Donnie Murphy

C Martin Maldanado

UT Taylor Green

OF Logan Schaefer

*I would prefer the Crew sign a veteran SS (Alex Gonzalez!) and not use Murphy there, but I wouldn't be surprised if they kept their pockets closed the rest of this off-season.

The Bullpen is much improved and should be competitive. The offense will be as good as last year, if not better with an improved Weeks and an upgrade at SS. The question marks are in the starting rotation. As they go, the Brewers will go. Which Mike Fiers will we see? Can Rogers stay healthy for a big league season? How will Narveson rebound from season ending surgery last year?

If the pitching can be in the upper half of baseball, the Brewers will shine.

-Zack

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Catch Up

Catch Up

What's up? It's been a while.

While I've been silent, the Bucks have been making plenty of noise.

So how about we talk about them?

A buzzer-beater three by Jennings in the home opener (a game I should have been blogging at for the Bucks “Fan Blogger” contest....can't let it go). A blown game in Charlotte that began a three game skid. A comeback OT loss in Miami. Most recently, a 27 point comeback win over the Bulls featuring the bench (Doron Lamb!).

It's been a season of ups and downs for the Bucks. At 7-5 they find themselves 1.5 in front of the Bulls for first place in the division. So where do they stand? How have we gotten here?

5 Good Signs

5. The Bucks have shown some great resiliency, most notably in their comebacks against the Heat and the Bulls. The Heat jumped out to an early 18 point lead in the first half of that game. The Bucks closed the half strong; a three by Dalembert (first of career) made it 44-46. It was Brandon Jennings that kept them alive in that game. Against the Bulls, it was the bench that fought back for the Deer. With just over 3 minutes remaining in the third quarter, Skiles replaced his starters with Udrih, Lamb, Dunleavy, Ilyasova, and Udoh. The reserve group got back 27 points and eventually won that game 93-92.

4. Brandon Jennings must feel something for Monta Ellis. Going into the season, there was worry that the two couldn't coexist together. All the “big brother-little brother, meeting together, living in the same apartment complex” stuff didn't do it for me. I wanted to see it on the court. Some saw Brandon Jennings shove on Bradley Beal as a cheap shot, but I saw it as proof. In the final 20 seconds of the Bucks win over the Wizards, Monta Ellis was fouled hard on a breakaway layup by Bradley Beal. Brandon Jennings raced into the frame and shoved Beal to the ground for his hard foul. Smart play? No. But I liked it. Even if it doesn't prove that they can coexist, it does tell me that Jennings has some feelings of camaraderie for Ellis. Also, Jennings affectionately calling Ellis “Tay” is cute.

3. Samuel Dalembert has been everything we expected. The Bucks needed a presence down low. They resigned F Ersan Ilysova and drafted F John Henson. The biggest impact, though, was the upgrade at the center position. Samuel Dalembert has helped the Bucks improve their interior defense and rebounding. Last year, the Bucks had a 48.7 REBR, good for 26^th in the NBA. They are 17^th this year with a 49.4 REBR.

2. I was worried that Skiles wouldn't be able to coach a fast pace game and would waste the quickness and talent of his backcourt. I was wrong, though. The Bucks are 2^nd in the NBA in pace, using 97.3 possession per game.

1. With their increased pace, the Bucks have been able to continue to take care of the ball. Jennings is a master at retaining the rock, and has continued his retention skills (this article is going downhill fast...) this season. The Bucks rank in the top 5 with a 12.5 turnover ratio. Jennings also leads the league in steals, which only helps the Bucks cause.

5 Bad Signs

5. #EllisLastSecondThrees I invented that hashtag. Not very creative, I know. It speaks volumes, though. The Bucks seem content to settle for outside shots and contested jumpers at the ends of games. Ellis scored 31 points in the Bucks 102-98 loss to the Bobcats, but struggled to score efficiently at the end of the tight game. Similarly, with the Bucks final shot and a chance to win the game in Miami, Ellis pulled up for a contested three pointer that missed. The Bucks lost that game. Again, against the Bulls on Friday he settled for a three pointer in the final minute of a close game. He missed, and the Bucks dropped the game 96-83. The fourth consecutive game, in Chicago against the Bulls, Ellis had the last Bucks attempt of the 1^st and 2^nd quarters. Both were three pointers that missed. He's a 19% three point shooter. He needs to use his quickness to score in clutch time, not his subpar shooting ability.

4. The Bucks don't shoot free throws. This became very evident in Friday's contest with the Bulls. The Bulls were 25-26 from the line while the Bucks were just 7-10. The Bucks attempt the second fewest free throws per game in the league (18.2).

3. They might be too flamboyant. It seems to me (opinion coming) that the Bucks got high on themselves very quickly. A blow out of the Celtics in the opener and a game winning three had Milwaukee hyped. Jennings was playing phenomenal basketball, as was Sanders. Jennings and Ellis were working together brilliantly. But they bought it. To me (again, opinion here) the Bucks are worried about highlights and stats because they think they're a really good team. They are not a really good team. Don't get me wrong, they're good. They have the potential to make the playoffs and even to make a little noise. But they aren't a top tier team, not by any means. The only way this team makes a name for themselves is if they can do the little things night in and night out.

2. The Deer are right about in the middle of the pack (pun) when it come to three point attempts. They attempt 19.1 threes a game. This was great at the start of the year when Jennings was shooting well and Dunleavy had something like a .999% from long range. But now that the shooting has cooled off, it has really cooled off. The Bucks have dropped among the worst in the league in the 3P%, shooting a measly .29%. With their size and their playing style, they need to shoot better from distance.

1. Playing time. Playing time, playing time, playing. Deepest team in the league. Period. Ok, I'll start using complete sentences, but you get my point! The Bucks are deep. I am comfortable with almost (*cough* Przybilla) anyone in the game. But after John Henson's coming out party and Doron Lamb's recent success, where do you give time to keep everyone happy? How does Lamb fit in with Ellis and Jennings? When does LRMAM get minutes and what does that mean for Harris? How do you handle Ersan's struggles? When Drew Gooden returns, how does he fit in with all the forwards? These are tough questions that I don't think I can answer (see earlier post on rotations), but I am hopeful that Skiles can. That hope may be wishful thinking, as I always struggle to understand how he gives minutes and why his rotations are as they are...but I digress.

Don't give up on the Bucks. Already this season we've had our ups and downs. This team has too much talent to ever go away easily. There are going to be nights, or even just minutes, where they will wow the pants off of you. There will also be nights where you want to turn the channel and watch Honey Boo Boo instead. My plead for you is this: keep the game on and keep believing in this team.

Go Bucks!

-Zack

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Stats from nba.com and espn.go.com